Question of the Quality of the Training-Employment Link Through a Prospective Analysis

: Sociology commonly known as "a collection of social facts" Gabel, [5] has successively moved from explanation with Durkheim, [4] to understanding with Weber, [14]. The various objects of study of this discipline subsequently led to a junction between explanation and understanding for a better appropriation of social facts. The renewal of social dynamics has led to a certain updating of sociology. Consequently, beyond the past time favoring the diachronic reflection, while passing by the present time exploring synchronic analysis, sociology wants to be and must be a science of the future, justifying the opportunity of a prospective analysis. This text therefore proposes to analyze the employment of young Beninese, through strategic foresight. It is essentially quantitative. The forward-looking approach makes it possible to anticipate the future through the development of sustainable strategies, underlying structural analyzes and stakeholder games. The technique of simple random sampling made it possible to extract the sample from the survey population. The various data collected were analyzed manually and processed using WORD and EXCEL version 2010 software, after codification and verification. The construction of the vision scenarios was implemented through morphological analysis, in particular thanks to the MORPHOL application. The implementation of this approach made it possible to select two (02) sets of hypotheses, thus leading to the probable scenarios of youth employment by 2039: decent employment for all; lack of employment.


Introduction
Vocational training is "the acquisition of a first qualification or a first skill for the exercise of a profession or a specific professional activity" Legendre, [9]. Which assumes that in a normal context, once vocational training is completed, we should be able to reinvest the new knowledge acquired from this training, through decent employment. We thus note in the background, a supposed articulation between the education system and the job market. This link between training and employment has often been at the center of societal issues. In Europe, "[…] The massive rise in youth unemployment in the second half of the 1970s highlighted the complexity of this link which obviously cannot be reduced to arbitrary equivalences between those leaving the education system and those entering the active life" Damman, [2].
In order to shed light on the "untraceable relationship between training and employment" Tanguy, [12]. It is written that "[…] When one has established an expensive machine, one hopes that the extraordinary amount of work which it will accomplish before it is completely out of service will replace the capital employed in establishing it, with ordinary profits at least. A man who has spent a lot of time or labor to make himself fit for a profession which requires extraordinary skill or experience, can be compared to one of these expensive machines. We must hope that the function for which he is preparing, will give him, in addition to the wages of simple labor, enough to compensate him for all the expenses of his education, with at least the ordinary profits of a capital of the same value, he This indemnity must also be realized within a reasonable time, having regard to the very uncertain duration of the life of men, just as we have regard to the Through a Prospective Analysis more certain duration of the machine" [12]. The minor "one must hope" premise reveals the randomness of investing in training. Which, among other things, is at the antipode of the thesis of the theory of human capital according to which, the choice for education has a cost which later brings benefits such as access to employment, getting a better salary [10]. Thus, despite the investments of actors such as the State, parents of young people and young people themselves, finding a job at the end of training and in this case, vocational training is no longer a certainty.
The socio-demographic statistics available in Benin do not seem to bear witness to the economic and social benefits to be expected from the education system. Each year, nearly 30,000 young Beninese graduates who have left the formal education system enter the labor market and are faced with difficulties which reduce their possibilities for socioprofessional integration (Ministry of Youth, Sports and Leisure, 2008). Unemployment rates for young people between 25 and 34 years old are very high. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Analysis, it is 17% among holders of a technical and vocational education diploma and 15% at the higher education level INSAE, [8]. The underemployment rates of those leaving secondary (upper and technical) and higher education are respectively 56,69% and 55% [8]. At the macroeconomic level, in 1999 Benin had a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of around 240,000 CFA francs, or about US $ 400 (World Bank, 2012). The growth rate at that time was in the range of 5-6% per year. In recent years, the growth rate has been steadily declining. In 2011, it was around 3.0% [7]. This testifies to a decrease in GDP, accompanied by factors such as growing poverty, difficulties in accessing education, training, primary health care, in short, basic social services. In general, these various statistics attest to the acute social and professional integration difficulties of young people. They also emphasize the macro nature of these difficulties, thus illustrating the state in which Benin society finds itself.
In this context, we can see that there is a certain disarticulation between the education system on the one hand, the needs of the job market and social actors on the other. In other words, an inadequacy of supply to demand for employment is noted Tchitchi. [13] Barriers to employment are more pronounced among young people. Youth is an important and essential component of the Beninese population. According to the third General Population and Housing Census, 60% of the inhabitants of Benin are under thirty-five (35) years old. Young people of working age, especially those aged fifteen (15) to thirty five (35) years old represent more than a third of the total population, or 31.8%, and nearly two-thirds of the working population, or 64,4% INSAE, [7]. Thus, the higher the level of education, the more critical the unemployment situation tends to be. Subsequently, according to data from the Demographic Health Survey (DHS), at the lower secondary level, the unemployment rate is around 9%. This rate is 10% at the upper secondary level. As for the technical and higher cycles, the unemployment rate is respectively 24% and 17% INSAE, [8].
Having a job at the end of university training in general, and vocational training in particular, is therefore anomie.
Moreover, the research object of this article is to analyze the lack of employment as a social fact, through strategic foresight. In this sense, we postulate that an internalization of youth employment by 2039 contributes to improving the quality of the training-employment link.
Taking youth employment into account as a secular phenomenon requires rational analysis in the future. It will thus be a question of highlighting the employment of young people in a forward-looking approach, in order to speculate on the balance between training and employment. The horizon of the prospective analysis of the employment of young graduates is set according to "The inertia of the system and the need to be able to erase the 'period effects', which generate turbulence harmful to the correct understanding of the deep dynamics of the system; the timing of the decisions to be taken, the decisionmaking power and the means of action; the degree of tension and motivation of the actors" Jouvenel. [3] Based on these criteria, the horizon is therefore twenty five (25) years that is to say that the projections are made over the long term. The theory of strategic foresight disseminated in France by authors such as Godet, [6] will be used for this supplementary effect.
After the construction of the research object, the context of this investigation was carried out.

Methodological Itinerary
This research is oriented towards an analysis of the lack of employment of young Beninese, through strategic foresight. It is therefore intended to be essentially quantitative.
The survey population constitutes all of the various people directly concerned by the study. With regard to the specificity of the information to be collected, two target groups have been identified: 1) young graduates of vocational schools at the University of Abomey-Calavi (UAC); 2) academic officials of the targeted vocational schools. The technique of simple random sampling made it possible to extract the sample from the survey population. This sampling method, which is a probability method, is justified by the fact that the sampling frame is perfectly known, individuals can be identified and approached due to the existence of their contact in the database. The sampling frame is that of young graduates who have sent a job application to the National Employment Agency (ANPE), during 2012, 2013 and 2014. The same was true for academic officials, whose list is known in advance. This list was consulted at the academic service of each institution (National School of Administration and Magistracy, National School of Applied Economics and Management, National Institute for Youth, Physical Education and Sport) size of the sample considered is two hundred and fifty nine (259) units.
The field survey was carried out using questionnaires. A set of questions were asked orally by interview or in writing to respondents. The questionnaire, it should be remembered, is one of the most widely used methods of conducting quantitative surveys.
The questions were chosen in a methodical way, in order to avoid the respondents feeling indexed. Depending on the topic, use was made of multiple choice or dichotomous questions. Difficult questions requiring a memory effort were excluded, at the risk of obtaining false or even imaginary information.
All in all, the questionnaire was carried out in the spirit of making it easier to read and understand by respondents in order to collect reliable information. Its design relates to the following variables: training; professional integration strategies; aspirations; major challenges and sociological profile.
After being transcribed, the various data collected were subjected to careful analysis. The information collected manually was analyzed. The data were processed using WORD and EXCEL version 2010 software, after codification and verification. The construction of the vision scenarios was implemented through morphological analysis, in particular thanks to the MORPHOL application.

Micro-scenarios of Youth Employment
The micro-scenarios of youth employment are obtained from morphological analysis.
Method implemented by Zwicky, [15] with a view to making "[...] the invention a routine, that is to say, a trivial procedure". Thus, by means of combinatorics, this method makes it possible to arrive at partial scenarios, with the identification of key questions upstream. Subsequently, the combination of the partial scenarios makes it possible to construct global scenarios.
The construction of these micro-scenarios was therefore possible thanks to the choice of dimensions and associated hypotheses, underpinned by the definition: 1) subsystems and; 2) key questions. These dimensions were identified beforehand, based on the results of the structural analysis (MICMAC) and the analysis of actors' games (MACTOR).
The table below presents the dimensions of the research, in relation to the challenges and major issues identified. Business performance Economic determinants of well-being 4 Self-employment support 5 Future of entrepreneurial culture Cultural foundations of youth employment 6 Reformatting the operating system for office work 7 Role of the State Institutional universe 8 Future of cooperation between the State and the private sector 9 Alignment of UAC to trends in labor market trends 10 Transparency in public and private sector recruitment Source: Ahouandjinou, 2014.
The prospective approach to youth employment in Benin identified ten (10) key issues, underpinning four (4) subsystems. These questions represent themes expressed as concerns and, being subject to critical uncertainties.
Then, the identification of the different possible solutions to the problems raised by the ten (10) key questions was carried out. This identification was made possible thanks to the exploration of the possible futures of the variables involved: the aspirations of young unemployed graduates; major trends; promising facts; critical uncertainties.
This approach resulted in the formulation of the hypothesis sets. Depending on the key questions, the number of assumptions varies from two to four. These assumptions were used as a basis for the development of trend scenarios, or micro-scenarios. The micro-scenarios fall under eight (8) thematic scenarios. Each thematic scenario contains within it elementary variables, the combination of which forms a set of hypotheses for the constitution of the micro-scenarios. The table below shows the matrix of the research microscenarios. From the MORPHOL combinatorics, the interpretation of the key questions into challenges and hypotheses resulted in fifty-nine thousand and forty-nine (59049) scenarios. The morphological analysis of the present research leads to thirty (30) preferably scenarios. These thirty scenarios served as a basis for the identification of eight (8) thematic scenarios.

Probable Scenarios
Through structural analysis and understanding the stakeholder games, strategic assumptions are formulated. The combination of the sets of hypotheses is made through a set of contingencies. Assumptions whose realization is conjectured at a given horizon. For the purposes of this research, the horizon is twenty five (25) years. Based on this analysis, two scenarios have been retained. Thus, taking into account the consistency and likelihood of these scenarios for the entire system, we end up with two scenarios, the sets of hypotheses for which bear two variabilities: 1) sets of favorable hypotheses; 2) sets of unfavorable hypotheses. The combinatorial analysis by sub-systems of the different modalities of the key questions and that of the integration of young people in these different possible evolutions could generate thousands of possible futures for Benin. After successive stages of selection, two global scenarios were selected and analyzed. This is the "decent employment for all" scenario based on four favorable assumptions, which has been identified as the one whose path best integrates the elements of strategic diagnosis and the aspirations of young graduates of Beninese higher education. This scenario is based on all the qualities and resources favoring "the culmination of the transition from youth and the cycle of studies to adult life and the cycle of paid work, from a certain form of dependence to full autonomy", [11].
In other words, through this scenario, young UAC graduates acquire complete autonomy, through selfsatisfaction of basic needs, a fulfilling married life, and guaranteed employment.
Conversely, the second scenario resulting from the sets of unfavorable assumptions is entitled "lack of employment". It is a catastrophic scenario where all the parameters are alarmist, thus translating the total disaster in the socioprofessional integration of young graduates of the University of Abomey-Calavi. These parameters are: adverse social determinants of well-being; adverse economic determinants of well-being; cultural foundations of unfavorable youth employment and; unfavorable institutional universe.

Conclusion
The major premise of this article is that internalisation of youth employment by 2039 contributes to improving the quality of the training-employment link. It was put to the test, thanks to an in-depth analysis of the employment of young Beninese.
Thus, the aspirations of young people sprawl across all levels of development, forming the ESPECT system. Economically, these young people aspire to better well-being both for themselves and for the state. On the social and political levels, young people hope for a healthy and harmonious life, as well as good management of employment by the public authorities. The search for a socio-economic environment of peace, cultural flourishing, as well as the appropriation of ICT for the benefit of employment, synthesize the aspirations of young people in the environmental, cultural and technological fields.
Through retrospective and exploratory analyzes, the key variables of the UAC-system have been identified. The construction of the underlying vision scenarios with ten (10) key questions is grouped through four (4) sub-systems. These questions represent themes expressed as concerns and subject to critical uncertainties. The exploration of possible futures is carried out thanks to the variables involved: the aspirations of young unemployed graduates; major trends; promising facts; critical uncertainties. This approach resulted in the formulation of the sets of hypotheses. Depending on the key questions, the number of assumptions varies from two to four. Two (02) sets of hypotheses are selected, thus leading to the probable scenarios of youth employment by 2039: decent employment for all; lack of employment.
Looking ahead, the future constitutes the raison d'être of the present Berger, [1]. Thus, through the prospective analysis applied to the employment of young Beninese, a projection of 25 years has made it possible to reach conclusions, including the probable scenarios of youth employment by 2039. Taking into account account of these scenarios will subsequently make it possible to anticipate and improve the quality of the training-employment link.